Econometric Study of How Exchange Rate Fluctuations Affect Economic Growth in Algeria (1990-2022)
Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Economic Development, Algeria, ARDL Model, Inflation, CointegrationAbstract
This paper does an econometric analysis to investigate the relationship between changes in exchange rates and Algerian economic growth from 1990 to 2022. This paper examines previous data to determine how exchange rate swings affect Algeria's economy, emphasizing its export dependency. The research examined immediate and long-term exchange rate- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) connections using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The model's stability and optimal time delay are assessed in the early tests. The ARDL limits testing method confirms a cointegrating connection, demonstrating a stable long-term balance between variables. An initial study shows that the exchange rate negatively impacts economic development, exposing the difficulties of imported inflation and currency instability. The study reveals no significant effects, proposing separating nominal and real aspects over more extended periods. These results help policymakers understand how exchange rate policies affect economic growth.
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